Where Does Your Vote Matter? May 2026

Electoral politics can often feel repetitive: the same candidates receive money and endorsements from the same supporters year after year. Most voters rarely get a chance to support real change.

But in every election cycle, there are at least a few races where the outcome is not a given and a few where one outcome is substantially worse than the other. This analysis is an attempt to identify where those races overlap in Portland's 2026 primary. Consider focusing your efforts on these races, even if you don't vote in any others.

• Oregon State House District 38 — John Wasielewski
• Multnomah County Circuit Court Position 2 — Diana Sykes
• Multnomah County Circuit Court Position 12 — Peter Klym
• Multnomah County Circuit Court Position 15 — Joe Hagedorn

Below you'll find analyses of individual races with two or more candidates.

Oregon

US Senate

Two candidates are on the Democratic ballot. Jeff Merkley is the incumbent and has been the junior US Senator for Oregon since 2008. (Yes, that means that his incumbency is officially old enough to vote in this election, if it was, y'know, a person!) Paul Damian Wells is running against Merkley, on a platform focused on Palestine and voting reform. Wells has run three times unsuccessfully for state office and does not appear to have raised money for this latest election. Merkley looks likely to coast through the primary and into the general election in November.

In comparison, seven candidates are on the Republican ballot. Of the seven, Jo Rae Perkins likely has the most name recognition, based on winning the 2022 and 2020 Republican nominations for those year's US Senate races and for her presence at the US Capitol building on January 6, 2021. While the Republican primary may prove tight, Perkins has an edge. It's unlikely, however, that any of the seven candidates running will be able to gather enough votes to beat Merkley in November.

US House

Congressional District 1

Suzanne Bonamici has represented Oregon's first congressional district since 2012. She won the 2024 Democratic primary with more than 90% of votes, and the 2024 general election with more than 68% of votes. Little has happened in the last two years to endanger that strong support and it's likely Bonamici will retain her position in the November general election. The only challenger Bonamici faces in this year's Democratic primary is Jamil Ahmad. Ahmad also ran in the 2024 primary, pulling in 6% of the votes. He may do better this year — perhaps as high as 9% if he can pull all support that went to other challengers in 2024.

Two candidates are running in the Republican primary: John Verbeek and Barbara Kahl. Of the two, Verbeek has more name recognition as a perennial candidate for both the state legislature and for Congress. While he tends to perform well in Republican primaries, Verbeek has failed to earn more than 34% of votes in any general election. In his 2018 match up with Bonamici, she won roughly double the number of votes Verbeek received. Kahl is running for the first time and has yet to establish herself as a more effective primary candidate than Verbeek.

Congressional District 3

The 2024 Democratic primary for Oregon's third district was contentious. Maxine Dexter, the incumbent, won a tight race with the help of out-of-state PACs spending millions in support of her campaign. Since her win, Dexter has gone head to head with ICE multiple times, which has won her some significant support on the left. However, there are still plenty of voters who are open to an alternative. Jessica Salas, a Democratic Socialist, is running in the Democratic primary. While she can't outspend Dexter, Salas may be able to tap into enough voters dissatisfied with Dexter and the Democratic Party to draw some serious attention. Unseating Dexter seems unlikely, but Salas is a candidate to watch. There's also a third candidate in the Democratic primary, Andrew Castilleja, but his campaigning seems minimal.

Only one candidate, Loran Ayles, is running in the Republican primary. Little information is available about Ayles, beyond a failed run for the Hood River County School District.

Congressional District 5

Incumbent Janelle Bynum may be the most vulnerable of Oregon's current congressional representatives. District 5 has more nonaffiliated voters than any other party, although more voters are registered as Democrats than as Republicans. Bynum beat Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former incumbent, in 2024 (Chavez-DeRemer has since been appointed and resigned from the office of US Secretary of Labor). Bynum faces one challenger in the Democratic primary: Zeva Rosenbaum. Rosenbaum is running a grassroots campaign and refusing money from corporate donors and lobbyists; so far her fundraising has not hit the $5,000 necessary to trigger federal reporting requirements. She has lined up some noteworthy endorsements (including ACLU Oregon). But Bynum's place on lists of vulnerable Democrats nationally has brought in hundreds of thousands of dollars — more than enough to drown out Rosenbaum's critiques of Bynum's congressional record.

Two candidates are campaigning in the Republican primary: Patti Adair and Jonathan Lockwood. Adair's fundraising is significant: she has raised over $270,000 as of the beginning of May, with many of her largest donations coming from individuals outside of Oregon. Lockwood has not raised enough to require reporting. Between her funding and her position as a Deschutes County commissioner, Adair seems poised to win the primary. It's worth noting that despite claims by Lockwood that Adair has a liberal record as county commissioner, she's been a loyal Trump supporter for over a decade and toed party lines in her time as a county commissioner.

Governor

Democratic Primary

As an incumbent governor, the odds of any primary challenger unseating Tina Kotek are low. While growing dissatisfaction with Kotek's recent focus on improving business prosperity and other centrist policies might suggest that the right challenger has a chance in this primary, none of the nine other candidates in the race seem to be making a dent in her position. A write-in candidate is getting more attention and funding than all nine challengers put together.

The current federal situation means that Kotek can easily position her re-election as a way to ensure stability in Oregon, both in the primary and in the general election. Any chance of seeing anyone else in Mahonia Hall next year requires a seismic shift in the political landscape. That stability does mean that Kotek isn't getting the full-throated support she might otherwise expect, however. The Oregon Education Association, the union that represents more than 40,000 Oregon teachers, has declined to endorse Kotek in this election, for instance. Such signals of reduced support may not elevate other candidates, but may translate to less power for Kotek during a second term.

Republican Primary

Fourteen candidates are running in the Republican primary for governor. Christine Drazan, the 2022 Republican nominee for governor and current state senator for the 26th district, has been polling well ahead of the rest of the field. However, Chris Dudley, the former Trail Blazer player, has double the funds to spend on the race as Drazan, thanks to $1 million from Nike co-founder Phil Knight. Dudley was the 2010 Republican nominee for governor and lost by only 22,000 votes to John Kitzhaber. (Dudley has no other political experience beyond that race.) The real question in the Republican primary is if Dudley can generate enough name recognition by Election Day. In 2010, he was able to leverage recognition from his NBA career, but Dudley hasn't been on a professional court since 2003 — he's going to struggle to pick up youth voters who weren't even born yet when Dudley last played. If Dudley manages to win the nomination, however, he may have an easier time lining up money and other support than Drazan.

There is little to differentiate any of the fourteen candidates in terms of their actual policies and legislative priorities: they're all campaigning on making Oregon friendlier to business interests, cutting taxes, and reducing regulations. Ed Diehl (current state representative for the 17th district) is the closest to a stand-out in terms of policy, based on his efforts to oppose the 2025 transportation funding bill in the state legislature, which is one of the causes of the Oregon Department of Transportation's current funding gap. While that effort may win Diehl points in the Republican primary, it would be a major obstacle in the unlikely event Diehl moves on to the November general election.

Write-In

An anthropomorphized pencil is running a write-in campaign for governor. The campaign is surprisingly substantive in comparison to several more human-shaped candidates running in both primaries. The pencil is the idea of J. Schuberth (one of the founders of Oregon Kids Read), who has personally funded the Pencil Political Action Committee with $29,000 as of the end of April. That's substantially more funding than write-in candidates usually have, and is actually more than any other candidate in the Democratic primary aside from Kotek. The campaign is intended to build awareness of on-going issues around reading proficiency in Oregon. The write-in campaign is targeting both the Democratic and Republican primaries. The pencil is more likely to pull votes away from Kotek than any other candidate, but so far does not seem likely to affect the outcome of either primary.

Labor Commissioner

While incumbent Christina Stephenson is facing a challenger during this election, that challenger, Chris Lynch, is poorly positioned to oppose her. Several of Stephenson's backers have individually donated more to her campaign than the total Lynch has raised. The core of Lynch's campaign is that Stephenson has been an ineffective leader and failed to prioritize workers over management. While Lynch may have some insight into BOLI's operations based on his work there, his claims don't match reporting or audits of the department. In fact, Stephenson may be one of the more effective labor commissioners in recent history, given her effective use of recent audits as well as a work stoppage to get BOLI more funding. She even structured the work stoppage to limit harms to lower-income workers.

Oregon State Senate

District 17

Incumbent Lisa Reynolds is facing a challenger, Autumn Sharp, in her first Democratic primary since being appointed to the seat in late 2024. While Reynolds doesn't have the entrenched power of a typical incumbent, she has garnered most of the endorsements and money in this race.

John Chee is running unopposed in the Republican primary. However, as Republicans in the 17th senate district haven't managed to get more than 34% of the district's votes in over twenty years, Chee doesn't have good odds of winning the general election in November.

Oregon State House

District 38

Perhaps one of the most interesting races in Portland this year is in District 38. Daniel Nguyen has held the seat since 2022. He's been challenged by John "Waz" Wasielewski with the backing of the Oregon Working Families Party, as part of a larger effort to replace centrist Democrats with more active supporters of leftist policies. Wasielewski is running a strong campaign with enough funding and other support that he may be able to overcome Nguyen's advantage as incumbent — to the point that power brokers with organizations like the Portland Chamber of Commerce have been running surveys with loaded questions describing Wasielewski as 'too extreme' to test ad language. The joke's on the Portland Chamber of Commerce, though: between voters who didn't even know the primary was happening and media attention on their surveys, they may have given Wasielewski's campaign a useful boost.

District 42

Sanchez first won the 42nd house district in 2016 after a narrow primary win. Sterling is the first primary challenger she's faced since then — and he's not running a particularly serious campaign. Sterling's policies are fairly standard for a Democratic Socialist, but don't feel like enough to match Sanchez's legislative work on issues like mental health. Frankly, given Sanchez's position as the only Indigenous legislator in the Oregon legislature* and her work with NAYA, Sterling's attempts to position himself as further left verge on laughable.

*Evaluating Indigenous identity is complicated. There may be up to three additional legislators in office at time of writing who could be described as Indigenous in specific or limited contexts, but who do not consistently identify themselves as such in the context of their legislative work.

Ballot Measure 120

Under this ballot measure, voters are being asked to increase the state's gas tax, payroll tax for transportation, and vehicle registration and title fees. It's the result of Republican opposition to the 2025 funding bill for the Oregon Department of Transportation, which is currently dealing with a major funding gap. The ballot measure is likely to be defeated as there's no one campaigning for its passage.

There's a whole lot of inside baseball behind Measure 120: Diehl and other Republican legislators cherry-picked only certain parts of the funding bill to force to a referendum, Kotek and other Democrats don't want to run a campaign increasing fuel costs, and there was even a special legislative session in January 2026 to shore up ODOT's funding that led to a lawsuit about this ballot measure. But despite all the political maneuvering, this measure doesn't matter.

Multnomah County

Note: Multnomah county commissioner elections will be on the November ballot.

Multnomah Circuit Court

Position 2

Of the five candidates vying for the second judicial seat on the Multnomah Circuit Court, the candidate with the strongest establishment endorsements (including Multnomah County District Attorney) is Laura Rowan. However, Rowan's prosecutorial record and cozy relationship with the Portland Police Bureau suggest that, on the bench, she would be the candidate most likely to compound the harms of the judicial system. While Chris Behre's work in public defense and in building diversion programs suggest that he might be one of the most effective choices for this position, Diane Syke's endorsement by the Portland Mercury and the Oregonian suggests that she has a better chance at beating Rowan. Sykes' work in creating the Oregon Department of Justice's Civil Rights Unit makes her a workable choice in this race.

Position 5

Neither of the two candidates for position 5, John Casalino and Joanna T. Perini-Abbott, are known for reformist tendencies. Perini-Abbott is enough of a better candidate, given her support of drug treatment diversion courts and lack of direct support from prosecutors. While this race may be close, the potential outcomes are not different enough to make this race a priority.

Position 12

Peter Klym is challenging incumbent Adrian Brown in an unusually complicated judicial election. Vasquez, Multnomah County's aggressively oppositional district attorney, has been targeting Brown in the media, demanding she be prevented from presiding over major cases. While Vasquez's attacks were mostly baseless, however, they led to stories about some troubling behavior. And since this election has kicked off, Brown has attempted to reschedule or pass cases to colleagues to ensure she has time to campaign after missing key campaign deadlines.

In contract, Klym is an experienced public defender who has advocated for restorative justice and other approaches. He's active in his union, understands appellate law, and even got teargassed in the streets in 2020. As much as voting for Brown to stick it to Vasquez appeals, Klym is the better candidate — and running a more effective campaign.

Position 14

An impressive six candidates are running for position 14, five of whom have serious community support. Joe Hagedorn is arguably leading the pack with endorsements from the Portland Mercury, Willamette Week, and the Oregonian. Given his familiarity with family law (the focus of position 14's docket), interest in restorative justice, and experience with public and juvenile defense, Hagedorn is a better choice than at least three of the other challengers.

Measure 26-261 — Renewing OHS Levy

Multnomah County homeowners have paid a levy to support the Oregon Historical Society (as well as the East County Historical Organization, Gresham Historical Society, Troutdale Historical Society and Crown Point Country Historical Society) since 2010. This ballot measure will renew the levy at $0.05 per $1,000 of assessed property value through 2031. The owner of a home valued at $250,000 will continue to pay $12.50 per year towards this levy if it is renewed, while the owner of a home valued at $500,000 will pay $25 per year. The levy renewal is expected to pass; the last two renewals passed with more than 70% support and public perception of OHS has not changed dramatically in that time. The main opponent to this ballot measure is the Taxpayers Association of Oregon, which opposes any ballot measure around taxation as a matter of course.

In 2025, OHS received $3.5 million from the levy, around a quarter of its yearly operating costs. The other organizations received around $30,000. OHS reports more than 20% of its in-person visitors came from Multnomah County. The levy is generally in line with the local usage costs of OHS' resources, especially given that OHS offers free admission to Multnomah County residents with proof of residency. Other sources of funding include the State of Oregon and private donors. While OHS has committed similar institutional harms as other museums and schools in the Pacific Northwest, the organization has been proactive for the last decade or so in returning human remains and cultural artifacts to the communities they belong to.

Measure 26-263 — Riverdale School District Local Option Tax

Property owners in Riverdale School District have used a local option levy to fund the district's operations since 2000. This year's ballot measure proposes increasing the tax from $1.37 per $1,000 of assessed value each year to $1.67 per $1,000 of assessed value each year. The owner of a home valued at $250,000 would pay $417.50 every year after this increase (up from $342.50 annually under the existing rate), while the owner of a home valued at $500,000 would pay $835 annually (up from $685). According to the Riverdale School District, failing to pass this increase will result in either firing seven teachers or cutting 21 school days from the calendar.

Historically, school levies and bond measures have passed easily in Oregon and nearby states. But in the past two years, school districts have faced more difficulty in passing such ballot measures — at a time when funding from other sources is also dropping. As a result, this measure may be harder to pass than it would have been in years past.

Measure 26-264 — Burlington Water District Local Option Tax for Fire & Ambulance

The Burlington Water District is asking voters to approve a new levy of $1.70 per $1,000 of assessed value on the roughly 400 property owners living in the district. The funds will cover expenses the Burlington Water District pays to the City of Portland Fire and Rescue Bureau and to build a contingency fund for the district. This ballot measure will not district water rates. The average assessed value for a property in the Burlington Water District is $166,000. The owner of a property valued at $166,000 will pay an estimated $288 more per year in taxes. There's very little information to be had on this measure — even the Taxpayer Association of Oregon can't be bothered to oppose it, even though they always oppose taxes because that's their whole thing. It's one of the hardest outcomes to predict as a result.

Portland

Note: Portland's city council elections will be on the November ballot.

Metro

Metro Council President

The race for Metro council president is getting more attention than usual in this election cycle, at least partially due to the expiration of the Metro Supportive Housing Tax in 2030 and uncertainty around its renewal. The impact of money raised through the tax has been debated, although a close reading of Metro's annual reports on that subject suggest that the tax has funded significant improvements in local housing supports. The real issue is that the number of households needing this help has increased by more than 20 percent since 2020 at the same time that federal aid has dropped. Metro's next council president is practically guaranteed to get tagged with claims that Metro has failed to do anything about homelessness in Portland, despite the underlying reality.

Of the five candidates volunteering for the job, Juan Carlos Gonzaléz has the most support from elected leaders, labor, and community activists — and the only active fundraising committee. Bruce Broussard and Chris Christensen run in just about every election cycle. Philip Fensterer and Ken Ross both work for Metro and could bring important perspectives to the council, but don't have the necessary backing to get elected in this race.

One note on Christensen and Broussard: the Oregonian and other media refer to Broussard as a perennial candidate and Christensen as a retired real estate professional. Given that Christensen has also run for multiple offices (his only win was the 2020 Republican primary to challenge Suzanne Bonamici for the congressional seat she still holds), journalists may want to interrogate their own choices in describing these two candidates.

Metro Councilor, District 1

Ashton Simpson is running for re-election against Noah Ernst. Ernst may be familiar from his run for Portland City Council in 2024, when he was eliminated second. Simpson has focused on transportation during his time on the Metro Council — no surprise given his history as the executive director of Oregon Walks. Ernst also considers transportation a priority, specifically around protecting car usage against 'special interest advocacy groups,' along with advocating for increased policing and streamlining the permitting process for real estate developers. Unfortunately for Ernst, many of the solutions he's advocating for are not under Metro's purview and have also been demonstrated to be ineffective. While comparing Simpson's 2022 win to this year's race is difficult (he won with 98% of votes as there was no other candidate), his community ties and name recognition seem likely to put him well ahead of Ernst. Just comparing Simpson's long list of endorsements (including from other Metro councilors) to the four Ernst has listed (including the company Ernst works for and an organization active in the 2024 election but that appears to be defunct now) makes clear that Simpson has a better sense of electoral politics.

Metro Councilor, District 4

Two candidates are running for the District 4 seat, Alex Phan and Miles Palacios. Palacios' work experience in both non-profit and political settings makes him a stronger candidate for the position, as he's likely to be able to get to work faster than his opposition. His community ties also suggest Palacios has more capacity for bringing stakeholders into conversations. The two have both made housing a central plank of their platforms. While both candidates have a slew of endorsements from various officials, unions, and other standard sources, Phan's endorsements from business interests, especially real estate organizations, creates questions about his approach to housing policy, along with his ability to separate his own interests as a real estate agent from the work necessary to reduce homelessness in and around Portland. However, given Phan's backing from organizations with financial power, he may have the edge in this race.